What the Chip Shortage Taught Us
Compute is a supply chain, not a faucet. The shortage was a lesson in who controls the substrate.
Where this goes
Open weights redrew the competitive map. A capable model you can run yourself reframes every build-versus-buy decision, and the frontier labs are well aware of it.
Inference cost is falling faster than most forecasts assumed. Each step down the curve unlocks a class of product that was uneconomic the month before, which is why the application layer keeps surprising people.
Margins at the model layer are thinner than the headlines suggest. Training is a capital expense; serving is a recurring one. The business that wins is rarely the one with the largest model.